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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-02-28T17:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-28T17:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29410/-1
CME Note: Bright CME visible in the NW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 associated with a M1.5-class flare from AR 3590 (N19W59) starting at 2024-02-28T16:24Z. Dimming visible in SDO AIA 193, rising loops and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 171/193, and flare with long-lasting post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 94/131. Not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2024-02-28T13:23Z to 2024-02-29T03:09Z. Arrival note: Characterized initially as a jump in Bt from around 3nT to 5nT, with more notable spikes in density, temperature, and speed from around 280 km/s to 320 km/s. Bt slowly rose to around 19nT by 2024-03-03T11:00Z with a long, sustained southward Bz reaching -16nT. The shock is not clearly observed (there is no abrupt increase in plasma data) and STA impact happens first and the sheath and its rotation are clearly seen and with a slight lag at L1, so the most likely candidates for this arrival are CME 2024-02-28T17:48Z and 2024-02-28T23:12:00-CME-001.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-03T08:47Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-03T05:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: 
Event id="389"
expected arrival time: 2024-03-03T05:00:00
time_uncertainty: 12
min_estimated_peak_K: 3
max_estimated_peak_K: 4
probability_of_arrival: 20

from SIDC URSIGRAM Issued: 2024 Feb 29 1231 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40229
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Feb 2024, 1230UT
Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the past 24
hours was at moderate levels. The largest flares was an M1.3 flare with
peak time at 18:19 UTC on February 28 from NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta).
...
Coronal mass ejections: A westward partial halo coronal mass ejection
(CME), with angular width of about 140 degrees, was first detected in the
LASCO/C2 data at around 17:48 UTC on February 28. The CME originated from
NOAA AR 3590 in the north-west quadrant of the solar visible disk, and was
associated with the long-duration M1.3-class flare peaking at 18:19 UTC.
The plane-of-the-sky speed of the CME was around 500 km/s and may result in
a flank encounter at Earth early on March 3.


The xml version of the CME arrival alert:
        
              
              
              sidctech@oma.be
              
              
              2024-02-29T09:56:44
              
              
              389
              
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                        2024-03-03T05:00:00
                        
                        
                        
                      
                    
                  
                
              
            
          
        
      
    
    
  






  
  
    
    
      
        
        
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
            
              
              
              sidctech@oma.be
              
              
              2024-02-29T09:56:44
              
              
              389
              
              0
              
              CME_arrival
            
            
              
              
                
                
              
              
                
                
                
                
                
                
              
              
            
            
              
              
                
                
                
                  
                  
                    
                      
                        2024-03-03T05:00:00
Lead Time: 70.85 hour(s)
Difference: 3.78 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-02-29T09:56Z
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